Aso dissolves lower house for Aug. 30 poll, LDP facing uphill battle+

TOKYO, July 21 Kyodo -
After tumultuous months since taking office last September, Prime Minister Taro
Aso finally dissolved the lower house Tuesday for an Aug. 30 election, in which
public opinion polls have indicated his ruling party could be thrust from power
for the second time in its history from 1955.

''The general election will serve as an important opportunity for the people to
decide which political party is suitable to hold the reins of government,'' Aso
told a press conference following the dissolution of the House of
Representatives.
''In order to protect your lives, I promise you we will achieve an economic
recovery and realize a safe society,'' he said.
The 68-year-old premier also said it is regrettable that his careless remarks
have damaged public trust in politics, while apologizing for his inability to
maintain party solidarity.
The general election will be the first since September 2005, when then Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who enjoyed strong popularity throughout his years
in office, helped the LDP secure more than 300 seats in the 480-seat chamber by
making postal privatization the most contentious issue in the campaign.
But this time, analysts predict that the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost
uninterruptedly for more than 50 years, will likely be heavily defeated by the
opposition Democratic Party of Japan, citing Aso's lack of leadership, his
policy flip-flops and the recent disarray in his party.
His rival DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, for his part, vowed Tuesday to oust the
LDP-New Komeito party coalition from power in what he claims will be a
''revolutionary'' election, for which he urged DPJ members to have a ''historic
sense of mission.''
''We promise to topple the LDP-New Komeito government...and would like to usher
in a new era,'' he said at a separate press conference. ''We must aim to become
the biggest political party (in the election) and gain a majority in
cooperation with other opposition parties.''
The emboldened DPJ has said it will pursue politics that depend less on
bureaucrats and are more focused on the people, having proposed plans to offer
26,000 yen in monthly child-raising allowances as well to waive all highway
tolls.
But Aso blasted the measures as ''pork-barrel,'' a phrase with which the
opposition had often criticized his government, and as a ''pipe dream'' with no
fiscal revenues secured.
To play up the image that the LDP is more responsible about the future, Aso
reiterated the need to raise the nation's consumption tax when the economy
recovers. The DPJ has said it will not increase the sales tax for at least four
years after it takes power.
''The tax hike could be hard for anyone, but I don't think we can pass on our
generation's debts to our children or grandchildren,'' he said. ''I have to say
to you something that could be a minus (to the LDP) toward the election.''
Noting that the DPJ has yet to decide which direction the party is heading in
the area of national security, Aso said, ''We cannot leave Japan's safety in
the hands of that political party.''
LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda indicated that the measure of victory or
defeat in the election will be whether the ruling coalition can gain a combined
majority in the house that comprises 300 seats in single-seat districts and 180
under the proportional-representation system.
But Aso, who doubles as LDP president, declined to comment on what results he
would call a victory for the LDP, saying, ''I should refrain from commenting on
the victory-defeat line when I am showing my determination over the lower house
election.''
It will be the first lower house race to be held in the month of August since
the end of World War II.
A total of 1,236 candidates, including 207 women, are expected to run in the
upcoming election, according to a Kyodo News survey.
A focal point of the election will be whether either side -- the LDP-New
Komeito coalition or the DPJ-led opposition -- can gain a governing majority in
the lower house.
The DPJ has formed an alliance with two minor opposition parties -- the Social
Democratic Party and the People's New Party -- in fielding their candidates in
most constituencies.
But the minor parties have also highlighted their differences from the DPJ in
order not to be overshadowed in what is expected to be a straight fight between
the LDP and DPJ.
The lower house, the more powerful chamber of the Japanese parliament, was
dissolved at its plenary session in the afternoon, following which the Cabinet
agreed to hold the election on Aug. 30, with official campaigning set to begin
Aug. 18.
After lower house Speaker Yohei Kono formally declared, ''Based on Article 7 of
the Japanese Constitution, we dissolve the House of Representatives,'' reading
from Emperor Akihito's dissolution rescript countersigned by Aso and his
Cabinet ministers, the house members gave a traditional banzai shout.
Earlier in the day, Aso apologized to LDP lawmakers in the party's meeting for
a series of defeats suffered by his party in major local elections and
declining support for the LDP.
The much-publicized meeting took place after a weeklong anti-Aso movement
within the party last week, which had proven to be a fiasco that merely
emphasized the impression of a deeply divided LDP.
Aso repeatedly said at the news conference, ''I am confident we were able to
confirm the solidarity of the party there.''
''Once a direction is decided, the LDP has always united in contesting
elections,'' he said. ''That is the history of the LDP.''
But the party is expected to remain in chaos for the next 40 days until the
election, as some members have hinted at the possibility of leaving and
creating a new party.
Among them is Kunio Hatoyama, an LDP heavyweight and one of Aso's close allies
who resigned last month from the post of internal affairs and communications
minister over a row involving Japan Post Holdings Co. and expressed interest in
forming a new party.
There is also simmering speculation that anti-Aso lawmakers may come up with an
original campaign platform, different from the party's.
Aso was elected LDP president last September amid expectations among his
colleagues that the outspoken and well-known former foreign minister would
immediately dissolve the lower house for an election and lead the party to
victory.
But Aso, who soon saw his public support ratings decline, refused to do so. He
said he needed to focus on reviving Japan's economy, which has been battered by
the global financial crisis.
Aso has adopted four rounds of fiscal budgets to implement a series of economic
packages in the 10 months, but his efforts to drum up voter support with these
economic measures have done nothing for his popularity, which has remained at
critically low levels.
Yet, Aso said, ''I believe it was not wrong'' for him to put priority on
compiling measures to prop up Japan's economy over dissolving the lower house
at an earlier date, which he argued would have resulted in a political vacuum
amid the unprecedented recession.
He has become deeply unpopular also because of his repeated flip-flops over
whether to receive money under his cash handout scheme, which was a centerpiece
of his economic steps, or whether to reshuffle his Cabinet and the top LDP
posts.
The embarrassing departure of Shoichi Nakagawa from the post of finance
minister was also a jolt to Aso. Nakagawa stepped down in February after
apparently drunken behavior at a press conference after the Group of Seven
meeting in Rome.
A recent Kyodo News survey showed that 48.4 percent of those polled favored DPJ
leader Hatoyama as prime minister, compared with 21.0 percent for Aso.
At the time of the lower house dissolution, 303 lower house members were from
the LDP, 112 from the DPJ, 31 from the New Komeito party, nine from the
Japanese Communist Party, seven from the Social Democratic Party, five from the
People's New Party, and one each from the New Party Daichi and the Japan
Renaissance Party.
Nine members were independents, while two seats were vacant.
==Kyodo