Kim Jong-il appears on track for power transition: expert

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to be in the process of a
smooth power transition to head off either a radical policy change or a regime
collapse, a U.S. expert on Korea said Thursday.
"Kim Jong-il's planning for his succession appears to be on track. He seems
firmly in charge of the process," Joel Wit, a senior research fellow at the
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, said in a policy report.
He contrasted the North Korean regime to the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when
Konstantin Chernenko, the last of the hardline leaders, was replaced by reformer
Mikhail Gorbachev.
"If the transition succeeds, the rise of Gorbachev bent on radical change is
unlikely," Wit said.
In the report titled "U.S. Strategy towards North Korea: Rebuilding Dialogue and
Engagement," Wit also said he sees no evidence to suggest that North Korean
leader Kim's apparent health failure has caused Pyongyang to move "aggressively
or irrationally."
"Rather, these actions reflect policy trends already in place before his
illness," he said.
He was rebutting the theory that North Korea's provocations, including nuclear
and missile tests, were triggered by Kim's efforts to help foster an atmosphere
for the grooming of his third and youngest son, Jong-un, 26, after apparently
having undergone surgery for a stroke in the summer of last year.
The nuclear and missile tests invited U.N. sanctions, and the North in turn
boycotted the six-party talks on ending its nuclear ambitions.
Pyongyang recently invited Stephen Bosworth, U.S. special representative for
North Korea policy, to attempt a breakthrough through bilateral talks, but
Washington insists it will have bilateral talks only within the six-party
framework.
U.S. officials said they will make a decision on a possible trip to Pyongyang by
Bosworth after Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao completes a North Korean trip
next week to meet with Kim Jong-il for a possible concession from the North
Korean leader.
Wit said North Korea's actions earlier this year "were not caused by internal
political developments, but were the result of a policy shift that began as early
as 2002.
"Pyongyang has steadily moved away from trying to secure a strategic relationship
with the U.S. as a hedge against pressure from its big power neighbors," he said.
"It now seeks to guarantee its security through building national nuclear
strength."
North Korea has set an ambitious goal of building a "strong and prosperous
nation" by 2012, spawning suggestions that it aims to complete the succession
scenario by then as well.
"To achieve that goal, it is prepared to use dialogue tactically to regulate the
external environment and consolidate security gains," he said. "While the North's
current focus on national nuclear strength does not auger well for future efforts
at denuclearization, Pyongyang has in the past proved fully capable of switching
course depending on changes in its internal and external circumstances."
In this context, Wit predicted continuation of the North's tough policies in the
years to come on condition the transition succeeds.
"A new leader -- certainly in his first new years -- will be more inclined than
Kim Jong-il to continue existing policies and to show toughness in standing up to
outsiders," he said.
Any failure in the transition, however, will result in "factionalism, bloody
political infighting and ultimately the collapse of the North Korean regime," he
said.
hdh@yna.co.kr
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