Breakthrough expected on climate change at 2009 G-8 summit: expert

RUSUTSU, Japan, July 11 Kyodo - Group of Eight leaders are expected to mark major progress in tackling global warming and the food crisis when they meet again in Italy next year, according to John Kirton, director of the G8 Research Group in Canada who has studied theG-8 summit process for 20 years.

''I think developing countries and the Major Economies Meeting process will be prepared to take the next big step, and probably actually agree to specific numbers of reductions of at least 50 percent by 2050,'' Kirton said after thethree-day G-8 summit in Toyako, Hokkaido, ended Wednesday.

''I think they'll join with the G-8 and accept specific numbers about medium-term targets (for 2020 or 2030) and more of the short-term ones,''Kirton, a University of Toronto professor, said in an interview in Rusutsu near Toyako.

At the just-ended summit, the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States sought to share the goal of at least halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 with other major polluters suchas China and India.

The G-8 and eight other emitters involved in the Major Economies Meeting on Energy Security and Climate Change agreed in separate talks Wednesday that they will strive to ensure ''deep cuts'' in emissions, though they failed to show aspecific reduction target.

Kirton hailed Japan's success in drawing the agreements, saying the results ''show that Japan is now a genuine leader, a global leader, making a big advance on climate change that recent summits in Europe were unable to do -- getting the United States, Russia, China and India all to commit to act.'' Many believe the involvement of the United States and China -- the world's two biggest emitters -- is vital for the creation of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which will expire in 2012. Two years of U.N. negotiations for a post-Kyoto framework will be concluded at a U.N. climate change meeting inCopenhagen in December 2009.

Kirton said that Italy, chair of next year's summit, is likely to push for the greater use of nuclear energy to fight global warming and to ensure energysecurity.

Quoting Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as saying, ''I cannot solve my climate change problem unless I use zero-emission nuclear power,'' Kirton said Italy is expected to try to persuade nuclear-skeptic Germany over greater useof nuclear power.

At the Toyako summit, the G-8 leaders approved a Japan-proposed ''3S-based nuclear energy infrastructure initiative'' to promote the use of civil nuclear power with the three principles of ensuring safeguards or nonproliferation,safety and nuclear security.

Italy is likely to focus on ways to stabilize surging energy prices, especially steps to curb speculative money flows to the oil market, as the country is amajor oil importer, Kirton said.

On food security, Kirton believes the G-8 will ''take a step in bringing tolife'' a new G-8 strategic grains reserve concept agreed at the Toyako summit.

'' Experts will look at it, and I think they will be ready to move by nextyear,'' he said.

Kirton also said the G-8 leaders' call for the launch of the G-8 farm ministerial process is ''quite appropriate'' and expressed hope that the newforum will help address the food crisis.

Among other issues, Italy is likely to continue to seek G-8 engagement in African development because Africa is a frontline for the country, according toKirton.

Global trade is also expected to draw attention because a new U.S. president, who will replace incumbent George W. Bush in January, ''will presumably have the political capital, finally, to move the (World Trade Organization's) Doha Development deal,'' he said.==Kyodo